Not all patterns are equally reliable. The Consistency Score helps.
What It Measures
The score (0-100) combines:
- How similar the pattern is year-to-year
- Volatility of returns around the average
- Statistical significance
Score Interpretation
| Score | Rating | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 70+ | Excellent | Highly reliable |
| 60-70 | Good | Reliable with caveats |
| 50-60 | Fair | Use with caution |
| <50 | Poor | Low reliability |
Example Scores
- S&P 500: 60.8 (Good)
- NASDAQ: 59 (Fair)
- Oil: 55.7 (Fair)
Why It Matters
A pattern with +10% average return but 40/100 consistency is LESS reliable than +5% with 75/100 consistency.
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