Last updated: February 2026
Key Takeaways:
- May is the best month for NVIDIA (+17.81% average, 80% win rate!) 🚀
- April is the worst month (-5.63% average, only 20% win rate)
- Multiple months show 80% win rate: May, June, August, October, November
- NVIDIA is one of the most seasonal large-cap stocks
NVIDIA: The AI Revolution Leader
NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market, and its stock shows remarkable seasonal patterns driven by earnings cycles, product launches, and AI hype waves.
Monthly Performance Heat Map
| Month | Average Return | Win Rate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | +6.71% | 60% | ✅ Strong |
| February | +6.22% | 50% | ✅ Moderate |
| March | +7.97% | 60% | ✅ Strong |
| April | -5.63% | 20% | ❌ Worst Month |
| May | +17.81% | 80% | ✅ Best Month 🚀 |
| June | +6.90% | 80% | ✅ Strong |
| July | +8.38% | 60% | ✅ Strong |
| August | +2.18% | 80% | ✅ Consistent |
| September | -1.84% | 40% | ❌ Weak |
| October | +8.76% | 80% | ✅ Strong |
| November | +9.93% | 80% | ✅ Strong |
| December | -2.95% | 40% | ❌ Weak |
Key Insights
🏆 Best Month: May
- Average return: +17.81% (!!)
- Win rate: 80%
- Q1 earnings reaction, GTC momentum, AI hype peak
📉 Worst Month: April
- Average return: -5.63%
- Win rate: Only 20%
- Pre-earnings uncertainty, profit-taking
🎯 80% Win Rate Months: May, June, August, October, November
- NVIDIA has 5 months with 80% win rate - exceptional!
Why NVIDIA Is So Seasonal
Catalysts
- GTC Conference (March): Product announcements drive spring rally
- Earnings (May, Aug, Nov): AI demand updates move the stock
- Computex (June): Asia tech conference momentum
- AI/ML Conferences: Year-round hype events
The April Dip Pattern
April consistently underperforms due to:
- Post-GTC profit-taking
- Pre-earnings nervousness
- Tax-related selling
Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Post-Dip Rally
Buy: Late April (after the dip) Sell: Late May Rationale: Captures the massive +17.81% May average
Strategy 2: Fall Rally
Buy: Early October Sell: Late November Rationale: Both months show 80% win rate with ~9% average returns
Strategy 3: Avoid April & December
Consider reducing exposure in these historically weak months.
NVIDIA vs Other Tech Stocks
| Stock | Best Month | Worst Month | Best Month Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | May | April | +17.81% |
| Apple | July | September | +5.53% |
| NASDAQ | July | April | +3.84% |
NVIDIA's May returns are 3x higher than typical tech stocks!
Analyze NVIDIA Seasonality on SeasOptima →
Generated with SeasOptima. Educational purposes only. NVDA is highly volatile.
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