5-Year Treasury (^FVX)
Seasonality Analysis
US 5-year bond yield
5-Year Treasury Annual Seasonality Statistics
5-Year Treasury Monthly Seasonality Performance
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -2.13% | Weak | |
| February | 3.40% | Weak | |
| March | 1.78% | Moderate | |
| April | 1.19% | Weak | |
| May | -0.99% | Weak | |
| June | 1.41% | Moderate | |
| July WORST | -3.91% | Very Weak | |
| August | -2.18% | Very Weak | |
| September | 0.82% | Weak | |
| October BEST | 5.79% | Strong | |
| November | 0.14% | Weak | |
| December | 2.80% | Strong |
5-Year Treasury 2026 vs Historical Pattern
5-Year Treasury Interactive Seasonality Chart
5-Year Treasury Pattern Scanner
5-Year Treasury Seasonal Historical Performance
About 5-Year Treasury (^FVX) Seasonality
5-Year Treasury (^FVX) has been analyzed using 27 years of historical data to identify seasonal patterns. Classified under Bonds, 5-Year Treasury shows distinct seasonal tendencies based on historical data.
The strongest month for 5-Year Treasury is historically October, with an average return of 5.79% and a win rate of 69%. Conversely, July tends to be the weakest month, averaging -3.91% return.
Looking at the full calendar year, 5-Year Treasury has an average annual return of 8.12% with an overall monthly win rate of 47.5%. Out of 12 months, 8 typically show positive average returns.
The seasonal pattern for 5-Year Treasury has a consistency score of 31.7 (Poor), based on 27 years of data. Higher consistency means the seasonal pattern has been more reliable across different market conditions.
5-Year Treasury Seasonality FAQ
What is the best month to buy 5-Year Treasury (^FVX)?
Historically, October has been the best month for 5-Year Treasury, with an average return of 5.79% and a win rate of 69%. However, past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the worst month for 5-Year Treasury (^FVX)?
Based on historical data, July has been the weakest month for 5-Year Treasury, with an average return of -3.91%. This is a historical observation and does not guarantee future results.
How reliable is ^FVX seasonality data?
The seasonality analysis for 5-Year Treasury is based on 27 years of historical price data. While seasonal patterns can provide useful insights, they should be combined with other forms of analysis. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance.
How can I use 5-Year Treasury seasonality in my trading?
Use 5-Year Treasury (^FVX) seasonality as one factor in your analysis. Identify historically strong and weak months, combine with other research methods. SeasOptima provides premium tools including interactive charts, pattern scanning, and historical performance data for deeper analysis.