10-Year Treasury (^TNX)
Seasonality Analysis
US 10-year bond yield
10-Year Treasury Annual Seasonality Statistics
10-Year Treasury Monthly Seasonality Performance
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.87% | Weak | |
| February | 0.79% | Weak | |
| March | 0.56% | Moderate | |
| April | 1.81% | Moderate | |
| May | -1.15% | Very Weak | |
| June | -0.33% | Weak | |
| July WORST | -2.44% | Very Weak | |
| August | -2.23% | Very Weak | |
| September | 1.04% | Moderate | |
| October BEST | 4.91% | Strong | |
| November | -0.95% | Very Weak | |
| December | 0.83% | Moderate |
10-Year Treasury 2026 vs Historical Pattern
10-Year Treasury Interactive Seasonality Chart
10-Year Treasury Pattern Scanner
10-Year Treasury Seasonal Historical Performance
About 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) Seasonality
10-Year Treasury (^TNX) has been analyzed using 27 years of historical data to identify seasonal patterns. Classified under Bonds, 10-Year Treasury shows distinct seasonal tendencies based on historical data.
The strongest month for 10-Year Treasury is historically October, with an average return of 4.91% and a win rate of 69%. Conversely, July tends to be the weakest month, averaging -2.44% return.
Looking at the full calendar year, 10-Year Treasury has an average annual return of 1.97% with an overall monthly win rate of 48.1%. Out of 12 months, 6 typically show positive average returns.
The seasonal pattern for 10-Year Treasury has a consistency score of 36.6 (Poor), based on 27 years of data. Higher consistency means the seasonal pattern has been more reliable across different market conditions.
10-Year Treasury Seasonality FAQ
What is the best month to buy 10-Year Treasury (^TNX)?
Historically, October has been the best month for 10-Year Treasury, with an average return of 4.91% and a win rate of 69%. However, past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the worst month for 10-Year Treasury (^TNX)?
Based on historical data, July has been the weakest month for 10-Year Treasury, with an average return of -2.44%. This is a historical observation and does not guarantee future results.
How reliable is ^TNX seasonality data?
The seasonality analysis for 10-Year Treasury is based on 27 years of historical price data. While seasonal patterns can provide useful insights, they should be combined with other forms of analysis. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance.
How can I use 10-Year Treasury seasonality in my trading?
Use 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) seasonality as one factor in your analysis. Identify historically strong and weak months, combine with other research methods. SeasOptima provides premium tools including interactive charts, pattern scanning, and historical performance data for deeper analysis.