S&P 500 (^GSPC)
Seasonality Analysis
US large-cap index
S&P 500 Annual Seasonality Statistics
S&P 500 Monthly Seasonality Performance
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.13% | Moderate | |
| February WORST | -0.81% | Weak | |
| March | 0.69% | Moderate | |
| April | 1.83% | Strong | |
| May | 0.41% | Moderate | |
| June | 0.41% | Moderate | |
| July | 0.86% | Moderate | |
| August | -0.39% | Weak | |
| September | -0.78% | Weak | |
| October | 1.52% | Strong | |
| November BEST | 2.21% | Strong | |
| December | 0.92% | Moderate |
S&P 500 2026 vs Historical Pattern
S&P 500 Interactive Seasonality Chart
S&P 500 Pattern Scanner
S&P 500 Seasonal Historical Performance
About S&P 500 (^GSPC) Seasonality
The S&P 500 displays the classic "year-end rally" seasonality over 31 years: November (+2.21%, positive 70% of years), April and October have been its strongest months, while September has historically been the weakest - the well-known "September effect" - with February the other soft spot. The index closed positive in 59.8% of months on average; note these are price-return figures (excluding dividends), so long-run total return is higher. A consistency score of 48 ("Poor") reflects that the calendar tilt is a tendency, not a rule.
S&P 500 Seasonality FAQ
What is the best month to buy S&P 500 (^GSPC)?
Historically, November has been the best month for S&P 500, with an average return of 2.21% and a win rate of 70%. However, past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the worst month for S&P 500 (^GSPC)?
Based on historical data, February has been the weakest month for S&P 500, with an average return of -0.81%. This is a historical observation and does not guarantee future results.
How reliable is ^GSPC seasonality data?
The seasonality analysis for S&P 500 is based on 31 years of historical price data. While seasonal patterns can provide useful insights, they should be combined with other forms of analysis. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance.
How can I use S&P 500 seasonality in my trading?
Use S&P 500 (^GSPC) seasonality as one factor in your analysis. Identify historically strong and weak months, combine with other research methods. SeasOptima provides premium tools including interactive charts, pattern scanning, and historical performance data for deeper analysis.